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One of the sides in the Russia and Ukraine war is not trying to win
A desperate gamble
We all know the maxim “Kyiv in 3 days” that helped launch the war. Many of the greatest strategic minds, and I confess even myself, thought Kyiv would fall quickly.
The distance from the border wasn’t great, Russia had just done the largest movement of tanks by rail in world history- bringing so many of those that guarded the Chinese border. Putin had made a speech basically denying Ukraine is even a country.
The smart play, which Putin did as an opening gambit, was declare Donbas and Lugansk independent and invite in Russians as ‘peacekeepers’. Had he just done that, the West would have finger pointed, Ukraine would have been humiliated, Russian oil and gas would still be flowing to Europe. Sanctions, if any, would have been minimal. Ukraine would NOT have gone to war to try and recapture those areas facing the might of the Russian army-which was most feared the day before it actually started fighting.
Then, from that forward position, at a convenient time- 6 months, 5 years or whatever later, he could launch an assault on the rest. Or maybe do nothing at all. That would be the ‘grand chess player’ Putin’s perfect strategic victory. But it turns out Putin is a pigeon, knocking over pieces on the table instead. He could…
