Now this I largely agree with, with some caveats. First, there are almost no troops in Georgia now they were sent off to Ukraine to die. South Ossetia is pretty much guarded by an old man and a sheep dog. Georgia could retake it in a day- the fact they don't is a big discussion in Georgia(where I lived the last 6 years).

The other thing to point out is both sides are running low on ammunition. Where Ukraine had a massive advantage was Europe never formed its grand army, so every country had its own army with stockpiles of munitions. Sitting around gathering dust. Easy to give a portion of that to Ukraine from 20 odd countries there plus the US,UK, Australia and elsewhere. That was a serious amount of equipment. Some 60,000 javelins have been supplied- enough, if used wisely, to destroy not only every tank in the invading army but every tank in Russia. But the problem is America only produces about 1500-3000 a year. Stinger missiles are great, but haven't been manufactured in more than a decade. While Russia is at a massive disadvantage, especially with getting access to chips, they do have their factories on a war footing. The west does not. So it is likely that Russian smart weapons will get dumber and Russia run out of things altogether, but the longer the war goes on, which is using thousands upon thousands of artillery shells per day- the west could fall short too. The west has to increase its production, it has more than enough capacity to do so. Or even better, fill Ukraine's shopping list now with everything it has been asking for- Abrams and leopard tanks, F-16s , long range munitions for Himars etc and let's not drag this out any further.