My father did the Australian Defence White Paper on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands. The Spratly islands, claimed by 5 countries, has significant oil reserves. Right next to China and China claims them. Other than some sabre rattling and the odd fort that disappears at high tide, nothing has happened there in 40 years. Which tells me China does not have some great urgency for new oil sources.

And, as Russia found out, if you want to maximise yields from fields you need western tech and know how- which is what companies like Haliburton were doing in Russia in the early 2000s. And you have to maintain those relationships in well maintenance or you have a Yukos situation- where those assets now produce 10% of what they did before.

China, for good or bad, understands trade. Countries like Australia are vulnerable to the whims of the Chinese- as many of our raw materials can partially or completely be sourced elsewhere. But China is also dependent on America/Europe as much as these places are dependant on China. Maybe more so. There are no other contenders that can replace Sino-European or Sino-American trade. Not Russia, Not Africa, not India, not South America, not the rest of Asia.

So China can bluster, and Europe and America can bluster- but they all need each other.