Israel does not have aircraft carriers. There are a lot of places they could refuel mid-air out of Iran SAM range including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and even Azerbaijan. Most SAMs do not have the capability to shoot down aircraft flying 30-40000 feet, only a handful like the BUK can. Remember Jordan was even shooting down Iranian missiles targeting Israel.

If an iranian missiles got through an aircraft carrier's screen of frigates, destroyers and cruisers to even take a hit, it would have the opposite effect to what you describe, with the US likely then going all in.