Yaakov C Lui-Hyden
2 min readApr 7, 2023

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First we are talking Ural blend not Brent, and the price has only recently risen for Brent anyway, Yuan denominated has little to do with anything except China has pretty much taken over Russia’s entire car industry and made great penetrations in other sectors- so Yuan/Ruble is now a reasonable proposition.

The Russian budget requires a peacetime price of $70 a barrel to balance, war costs are insane on a country with the economic size of Italy.

Selling gas to whom? Almost all the pipelines runs East to West. Power of Siberia pipeline can do a tiny fraction of gas to China compared to what was being sent to Europe. There is a massive amount of flaring going on as you can’t just turn off the tap.

Production cuts are largely a farce especially when it comes to Russia. Russian production is falling anyway, there was a reason Halliburton was in Russia, Russia struggles to keep its wells open without western tech. Classic example of their incompetence was the takeover of Yukos by state backed companies which turned an Aramco rival into a white elephant. Well maintenance is an ongoing process and was done by western companies.

Ural blend as of 4th of April has a $21.49 per barrel discount to Brent. That’s because of its higher refining costs and has to be mixed with other oil to refine in places like India. That’s the price Russia is trying to sell at which is not the same as the price the Indians and Chinese accept and doesn’t include the cost of transport which Russia is paying for.

As for grain- and? Agricultural exports from Russia are important in volume terms. But they were a quarter of the value of oil and gas. Russia is indeed a net exporter of food $37 billion exports to $34 billion imports. There is even a cucumber shortage in Russia right now.

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Yaakov C Lui-Hyden
Yaakov C Lui-Hyden

Written by Yaakov C Lui-Hyden

Yaakov is a world traveller and is accused of being an Australian. Published several novels. He writes about travel, writing, geopolitics and trading.

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