1) China has been about to invade Taiwan for 40 years and is further away than ever. It would require a Landing ship fleet at least 5 times bigger than Normandy to pull off and has *check notes* less than 10 large landing ships. There is zero risk of an actual invasion in the next decade. And we would see them build those ships.

2) There is an insane level of oil in the Artcic that Russia is privy too but it is difficult when icebreaking tankers are sanctioned- Sovcomflot was not able to purchase these from South Korea due to sanctions and Arctic drilling is hard. There is no scenario where Russia would go to the other side of the world to face the same problems.

3) Everyone knows there is a crazy amount of oil and minerals in Antartica. There might be a day when the treaty is torn up or modified but then a lot of other countries-such as Australia who controls the largest portion- would be in a position to capitalise on it far easier than Russia.